Intelligent Technology 2.0 Presages the End of Global Corporations

Lavirrealista

Virrealismo Publishing

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements

By the Same Author

Introduction

TIT FOR TAT and the Open Source model

Co-operation in the light of ITech 2.0

ITech 2.0 and other industries

So where are we headed?

Conclusion

About the Author

Acknowledgements

Intelligent Technology 2.0 Presages the End of Global Corporations

Lavirrealista

ISBN: 9781909078314

Front Cover Images

Team work © Satori13, Dreamstime.com

© VIRREALISMO PUBLISHING

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Published by Virrealismo Publishing

http://www.virrealismo.com

***

By the Same Author

Fiction

Real Virtualities

Tales from the Mother Galaxy that includes:

Tuméng

Planets Under Glass

Borrowed Brains

Zetana the Disconnected

The War of the Plutonidians

Accidental Warrior

Change of State First Phase

Non Fiction

Robotics And Virtuality - How The Future Will Be Transformed By Robotics And Virtual Reality

Intelligent Technology 2.0 Presages the End of Global Corporations

By Lavirrealista

Introduction

From Leonardo da Vinci to Steve Jobs we learned that “simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”.  The concept has been proven correct by Robert Axelrod, the professor of political science who in the late twentieth century organised a remarkable competition.  He invited experts in game theory to submit programs for a Prisoner's Dilemma Computer Tournament{1} to study under which conditions co-operation emerges.  Many entries were submitted of different degrees of complexity, each with its own named algorithm.  Axelrod writes:  “To my considerable surprise, the winner was the simplest of all the programs submitted, TIT FOR TAT.”{2}

While recognising the value of TIT FOR TAT as the best road map for any level of future co-operation it is suggested here that, in a technologically driven society, co-operation should be guided by the open source model under the Intelligent Technology 2.0 framework.

Intelligent Technology 2.0, named here “ITech 2.0” in analogy with Web 2.0, does not refer to a specific new technology development or usage but it changes the way new technologies are developed and used.  ITech 2.0 allows users to interact and collaborate with each other not just as users but also as creators of user-generated technology.  This contrasts sharply with Industrial Technology (“ITech 1.0”) where people were passive developers and passive users, directed by investors.

The cornerstone of ITech 2.0 is the Open Source paradigm and it is argued here that many industries are already starting to be affected by the same principle of “do-share-use-do” that is the assembly line of ITech 2.0 and both developers and users are acting with exactly the same “simple and sophisticated” methodology of TIT FOR TAT.

TIT FOR TAT and the Open Source model

Despite the fact that humans are social creatures who in their way of living tend to cooperate, or at least show a tendency to do so, self-interest in decision making often prevails.  The bottom line of the Axelrod project was to investigate the issue of how and when people (or indeed companies or even States) should cooperate and to what extent.  The answer, he found out, is that people do cooperate and the best strategy appears to be reciprocation (i.e. TIT FOR TAT).  Also, and perhaps most importantly, he discovered that, under suitable conditions, the answer to the question: “is it still more advantageous to cooperate in the absence of a central enforcing authority?” is again “yes” according to the results of the tournaments.

TIT FOR TAT, writes Axelrod, is the policy of cooperating on the first move and then doing whatever the other player did on the previous move.  In a technology driven society such a strategy works very well if applied in an open-source development environment.  Let's say, for the sake of argument, that in our game the players are two developers.  The first developer begins a product by sharing voluntarily a piece of code, a routine or similar; if the second developer “defects”, that is does not contribute another piece of code, the entire project fails.  On the contrary if the second developer “reciprocates” the project goes ahead and a new open source product is born.

But there is more.  Open source products, because of this inherent cooperative collaborative nature, are continuously updated and so they grow and can be used freely by anyone who needs them.  However, if they become part of a proprietary product, under the rules of TIT FOR TAT, this is equivalent to defecting and whatever products they become are no longer supported by Open Source communities.  Thus, unless privately maintained, they are destined to become outdated.

Finally a developer who always defects, such as a company that has its own proprietary products and does not share, will have less or no chance to be rewarded in a world that begins to cooperate, unless at a certain point the strategy is changed and cooperation is adopted.

Co-operation in the light of ITech 2.0

There is no doubt that the world is becoming digital and software is now fundamental for the service industry and is increasingly becoming so for manufacturing industry as well.

Global corporations are finally recognising that to survive they must come out of their “proprietary shell” and cooperate, even with old enemies. As a consequence business models and strategies are changing.

An instructive example of this is Microsoft.  For many years Windows has dominated the PC industry but, about two years ago, a major strategy change occurred; Microsoft recognised the power of open source and “developers [were given] new ways to use .NET and Visual Studio to make software not just for Windows but also for Linux, Mac OS X, iOS and Android”{3}.  Two years later (in fact during the final draft of this essay!) Microsoft actually became a Linux Foundation Platinum Member{4}.  There were many reasons behind these choices surely, and they are out of scope here, but cloud computing infrastructure, which allows delivery of everything from software to data over the Internet, had the major role.

In fact, cloud computing has also been responsible for the booming and flourishing of other multinational technology companies such as Google, Amazon and Facebook - incidentally already all Linux Foundation Members.  And so thanks to cloud technology, while Microsoft is slowly moving from an application-centered company (“Windows”, “Windows”, “Windows”) to become more a developer-centered enterprise, those other types of ventures from the simple initial Internet-user interface business have grown into data-centric multinational warehouses and distribution chains of information and things.

That is not all:with cloud computing also something else changed.  For the “cloud developer”, it was established that an open source platform, like Linux, is superior compared to a private one (for smooth and easier software maintenance and distribution, for example).  Besides, interestingly, open source platforms have also become vital for the “cloud user” who is no longer a passive outsider that scans the web just to retrieve a bit of information here and there or to purchase something.  Today he increasingly interacts with multiple applications and in so doing he becomes part of the products he uses because he now returns information.  He is, to put it bluntly, the volunteer data source provider!  Therefore, it is unarguable that TIT FOR TAT underpins the strategy behind the renewed relationships between developer and user who now asks “what's in it for Me”?  And he discovers that it could be a lot.  In return for supplying his data, he finds he can book a doctor or a dentist appointment (Health Care) for example, trace his parcel (Postal Services), pay his utility bills (Electricity, Water, Gas services), book and purchase his train ticket (Travel), organise his holidays (Tourism), book a room in an hotel (Hospitality.)... to name but a few.  Hence, the conversation begins between these two new cloud-actors and products grow and businesses expand.

What is more, the massive data accumulation, storage and sharing that results from the whole exercise did not limit itself to feeding products in the cloud just for the sake of the online services of the service industry.  It has also led the way to the development of actual physical products: the Internet of Things!  Gadgets and appliances become alive, in the sense that even they are no longer mere passive devices.  While you are shopping, your fridge can tell you if you need milk or if you are at a bus stop your smart transportation device can organise a bus to arrive promptly.  In return this basic intelligent equipment helps to maintain the data current: where are you, what are you doing, what do you need and so on, ready to be fed back into the cloud for other services.

That's all well and good and while the TIT FOR TAT strategy is maintained all this cooperation works... to a point.  One could wait hours at a bus stop if there are not enough requests from that location for a particular service because, let's say, diverting a bus of the company linked with the specific smart transportation device is not economic.  Or perhaps, once arrived at home, one might discover that the software of his smart fridge had crashed and now he has no milk at all.  Worst of all, the user could discover that he had been 'defected' against in his privacy agreement since not only has all his metadata been retained, perhaps even unencrypted, but they are also released without his consent.

The ghost of proprietary logic resurfaces - passive developers and users directed by investors.

In the end, paradoxically, the population online would shrink and the user would return to checking the timetable in the old way or writing by hand the shopping list while the developer, deprived of fresh data, has nothing to do and loses his job.  And so the Luddites win!

The point is that, ultimately, this gigantic advanced collaborative development system even if has been transferred into the cloud cannot work without users’ input.  An appliance can be as intelligent as it wants but if it is not continuously fed with data it will not work and it will not grow.

So data are indispensable for developers, now more than ever in fact, and considering that they age fast in the new digital world of ITech 2.0 they can be neither proprietary nor taken for granted.  It is, in any case, common knowledge that data must be kept freely available for everyone to use, which means data need to be stored at the very least in an open format.

Applications and devices for their part must be able to talk to each other seamlessly or soon become obsolete.  Therefore, as for data, business knows ( or is learning fast!) that they also must be constructed with open standards to allow software or goods made by different people to work together.

ITech 2.0 however, requires something else.  It requires software to be built with open source code constantly to improve resilience, versatility, diversity and not least, longevity, which are already great benefits.  In addition, as more applications become available and free to use, or at least affordable, they have a tremendous effect: they stimulate innovation and growth on a mass scale because more people with skills other than programming are given the possibility to become entrepreneurs in their own field of expertise and in a TIT FOR TAT logic they help and inspire programmers to fix bugs or create improvements.

Having said that, the Open Source paradigm in its entirety is both a challenge and a dilemma since companies tend to prioritise profit.  Yet, it is possible to find different ways to recover costs and make profits and there are many examples of successful, open source based companies{5}.

Finally, to achieve trust with the users and to expect their full collaboration with developers, Intelligent Technology 2.0 also demands that privacy is respected.  Together with encryption for general data, safeguarding of user metadata is a must and the best thing to do is simply not to collect sensitive information in the first place such as names, date of birth, addresses, emails addresses etc., if not strictly necessary.  User-avatars are more than enough for the majority of services and smart technology products.

In this way, back to our examples: if a smart-device does not pick up a bus from the vicinity maybe it can send a message to a different smart-device, which is specialised in organising pick up cars.  If a smart-refrigerator is provided with software built in an open source environment it is more likely to be supported in the longer term and generally should not crash very often.  Normally refrigerators last many years, certainly well beyond the life span of proprietary software but, as it is now, companies rather prefer to upgrade the whole device every year or so, as happens with smart phones.  So imagine the waste and the inconvenience!

Finally, a device provided with an open source encrypted application is ideal because, in short, the encryption protocol can be universally understood and can be quickly fixed if it get hacked (paradoxically, it was recognised over thirthy years ago that encryption algorithms must be entirely open).  Last, but not least, it can be checked for what it really stores with respect to metadata!  Encryption software like Signal{6}, which in addition does not store personal information, should be the norm so the user can feel safer in using the app and sharing his data.

Now it is clear that TIT FOR TAT is not enough on its own; in a technology driven society the whole open source paradigm must be part of the equation and not just for the server side.  This is Intelligent Technology 2.0.  Different ways of developing products, different ways of using them and ultimately different way of doing business and conducting life.

ITech 2.0 and other industries

White goods and electronics are not the only products among the manufacturing industries that show signs of resembling the type of innovation discussed above, there are others.  Once again ITech 2.0 is at the forefront.

Let’s take for example the textile industry.  On the surface nothing seems different; “material still covers our bodies, quality and design have still social meaning, fabrics are still sewn with needles and dresses are sold in stores”, the young voice of business cries with disappointment.

Nevertheless, it goes without saying that innovation technology began to erode the entire concept of clothing and in doing so the textile industry too, like it or not, is starting to be revolutionised.  Another major twenty first centurydevice is involved here: the 3D Printer, the machine that allows a virtual shape to become a real tridimensional object, be it a new type of fabric, a new concept of dress or an accessory.

Currently the production of innovative materials and original products is booming, for example from the workshop of a solo artist like Danit Peleg{7}  - who claims: “I believe that technology will help democratise fashion and give designers more independence in the creation process” - to the wearable technology laboratories of both established and new companies.  Some of these focus on development of smart fabrics, that is new materials capable of capturing data, such as the real time performance of an athlete or the health conditions of the wearer.  Other companies experimenting with new materials, are also creating extravagant engineered designed outfits that can even make the wearer fly or eject beautiful bubble shapes while promenading{8}.

The data bank has become very complex and not just in quantitative terms.  The Internet has brought to the market many new products and services that have amplified the ability of consumers to communicate with the entire world around them, and in return multinational companies collect and continue to collect vast quantities of information.  But products such as smart clothing go deeper because they extend knowledge about the actual user, help him to understand better what's going on with his body (e.g. heart rate and blood pressure) and allows him to express himself entirely, with a color, a texture or a mechanical design.  In the logic of TIT-FOR-TAT the user could, if he wants, communicate all that knowledge to others.  Just imagine! An emotionally responsive dress that changes color according to how you feel…

Companies like Hitachi are investing in potential applications for medical use, where data come from a large number of sources including wearables, MRI machines, CAT scans and clinical data from electronic health records.  Data mining plays a central role both in the current and in the future technological developments that are coming on stream and soon enough the “data provider” will be in the position to bargain his contribution to the new products, be it in on data security or other grounds.

Of course 3D printing technology is not limited to the textile industry.  In addition to its growing use in heavy industries, ordinary people are finding many different ways to use 3D printers.  Young teams of entrepreneurs with different skills and backgrounds are getting together to generate entirely new sorts of products such as accessories, candles, ceramic pots, cups, plates... and sell them in a development similar to that of books and music.  They often use open source software{9} and open source philosophy.  They are very enthusiastic and happy to share their findings with others.  They are dramatically changing the traditional manufacturing archetype, transforming themselves from passive consumers into active creators.

Of course, one can object that technology like 3D printing is still in its infancy but not for much longer.  As happened in the music industry or more recently, the publishing industry, the rate of development of technology is accelerating and because the new generations of developers and users have grown up in the digital age, they interact differently, and perhaps the concept of “work”, for many but not yet all, is also different.  And it has to be.  Robotic automation will replace a large slice of the traditional physical labour of the workforce.  But not completely and not by tomorrow and not for everything.   And let's not forget that a robot, like a 3D printer, is not just a box: it is ultimately software!

It cannot be disputed at this point that ITech 2.0 has already changed our entire modus operandi and it will continue to change it more.  It is rising slowly like the tide, here and there and it has started already to affect big businesses, developers and consumers.

So where are we headed?

At this point one might wonder what will be the more distant future social implications of ITech 2.0.  Referring back to Axelrod’s findings, might this new way of co-operating not really require enforcement?  And what are the conditions and implications of a possible ITech 3.0?

Simulation of a possible future technologically driven civilisation is ideally tested in a fictional scenario.

In the latest novel from Lavirrrealista, Change of State First Phase{10}, a futuristic social model is explored, very much inspired by Axelrod's book.

Briefly, the story is about a high tech society evolving in a post apocalyptic environment that serves as a contrast.  The work is fundamentally an abstraction, a general idea of what an open source society might look like, meaning that each individual can benefit from the work of others and, in turn, others benefit from and extend the work of each individual.  There are, however, a few rules to respect but the most important ones are transparency and reciprocity.  A person can defect, but it puts him out of the game.  He can still produce for himself but he will not be able to share or benefit from the collaborative work of others.  There is no central authority to enforce these rules, just a gigantic integrated system that manages everything.  It is called, not surprisingly, “tifiti” (TIT FOR TAT!)

Thus benefiting from the work of others requires reciprocation, directly or indirectly.  “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”. And tifiti is both simple and sophisticated.  Tifiti is a system of intelligent collaboration that facilitates progress and innovation.

Conclusion

Wearable technology, the Internet of Things and other intelligent technologies to come will conquer the mainstream and succeed in the long term, paving the way for a possible interesting future.  They must be packaged with the same benefits and constraints that the evolution of co-operation requires: TIT FOR TAT, open source and security.  That is Intelligent Technology 2.0.

Big companies will need to adapt and find different ways to achieve a return; they need to redefine their boundaries and perhaps their meaning.  In this sense ITech 2.0 could really presage the end of global corporations as we know them.

The result is grand.  In a nutshell, different ways of developing products, different ways of using them and ultimately different way of doing business and conducting life.

About the Author

Maria Pellegrini, who also writes under the pen name Lavirrealista, has been an indie publisher since 2010, exploring on the theme of technology and society of the future.  “Virrealism”, is the underlying concept of her work.  Virrealism transforms reality into virtuality and vice versa thus taking us well beyond virtual reality.  She has now written two books (Real Virtualites 2011, Change of State - First Phase 2016) and six short stories which explore different aspects of possible future technological development.

Trained as a geologist and environmental scientist, she specialised in GIS technology and worked for many years in the industry, later becoming editor in chief of a technical magazine.  Her scientific training ensures that the science in science fiction is not lost.

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Notes

{1} In fact, there were two tournaments.  Rules and results are described in Axelrod's book The Evolution of Cooperation. In brief: “In the Prisoner's Dilemma game, there are two players. Each has two choices, namely cooperate or defect. Each must make the choice without knowing what the other will do.  No matter what the other does, defection yields a higher payoff  than cooperation.  The dilemma is that if both defect, both do worse than if both had cooperated.” Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Co-operation, Penguin Books 1990.

{2} “Tit for tat (or tit-for-tat) is an English saying dating to 1556, from "tip for tap", meaning "blow for blow," i.e., retaliation in kind— or more broadly, an equivalent to an action given in return. It has related meanings and use as a concept in biology, social psychology, business, as well as in the mathematical area of game theory. The concept in its various forms has found use in the real world in attempting to explain a form of reciprocated altruism in animal communities, and as a strategy for managing activities in technology areas.” Source Wikipedia

{3} “Microsoft shocker: Open-source .NET, free Visual Studio, support for Linux, Mac, Android and iOS”,  Todd Bishop, November 12, 2014 - http://www.geekwire.com/2014/net-visual-studio-microsoft-open-source-cross-platform/

{4} “Microsoft Fortifies Commitment to Open Source, Becomes Linux Foundation Platinum Member” – November 2016. https://www.linuxfoundation.org/announcements/microsoft-fortifies-commitment-to-open-source-becomes-linux-foundation-platinum

{5} The way intellectual property is handled in open source products is an important aspect, relevant to ITech 2.0, but is not considered in this essay.

{6} Signal is an encrypted instant messaging and voice calling application for Android and iOS maintained by Open Whisper Systems a nonprofit software group.  Signal and Signal Protocol are the main products that are published as free and open-source software.  See web site: https://whispersystems.org/

Note: Signal's "privacy by design" was quickly applauded by National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden. (“FBI demands Signal user data, but there’s not much to hand over”,  Cyrus Farivar, Ars Technica, 10/5/2016, http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/10/fbi-demands-signal-user-data-but-theres-not-much-to-hand-over/ )

{7} Danit Peleg is a fashion designer based in Tel Aviv.  Web site: http://danitpeleg.com/

{8} For a general overview of the future of clothing see The Next Black, a documentary film about the Future of Clothing, https://youtu.be/XCsGLWrfE4Y

{9} For example Blender that is a free and open source 3D creation suite. It supports the entirety of the 3D pipeline—modeling, rigging, animation, simulation, rendering, compositing and motion tracking, even video editing and game creation. Web site: https://www.blender.org

{10} Lavirrealista, Change of State First Phase, Virrealismo Publishing, 2016. http://www.virrealismo.com